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Thai experts expect the US midterm results, which gave Democrats control of the House, to push President Trump toward softer trade stances with China. A US-China trade deal is widely expected when Trump and Xi meet at the G-20 later this month.
Analysts also flagged a likely Fed rate hike in December as a risk to emerging-market capital flows.
A possible US-China trade deal would support Chinese purchases of US soybeans and grains, which are currently disrupted by the tariff dispute. Expectations of a deal are already largely priced in, so the impact depends on whether it materializes.
nationthailand.comNov 7, 2018After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
