
AgResource economist Dan Basse said dairy prices should improve into mid-2019, with more upside if the US and China reach a trade deal. He expects further US dairy cow liquidation to about 9.3 million head and a 15-20% gain in milk powder markets in 2019.
Falling cow numbers reduce milk output and dairy byproduct availability, while a possible China trade deal could lift dairy demand and feed-related purchasing.
After 41 past bullish trade events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.3% to +8.1%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.