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Agronomic commentary describes a 2018 season with a snowy April, a warm dry May in the east, tar spot in corn at unprecedented levels, and lodging that complicated harvest. Yields were variable and better than expected given the weather.
Surprisingly good yields despite weather stress point to ample supply, which is mildly bearish for feed grain prices.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.