
Spring wheat futures rose as much as 8.5 percent in a session, the largest intraday gain since 2010, after a planting outlook cut and expanding drought in US growing states. Prices rose 31 percent in June, outpacing 80 other tracked commodities.
A smaller US planting and expanding drought tighten supplies of wheat and oats used in feed. Feed costs are likely to stay elevated.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 68 past bullish weather events, OATS moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Spring wheat's record surge on drought and a planting outlook cut on June 29 lifted the whole wheat complex, and SRW followed through spillover and sentiment.