
Statistics Canada cut its final 2018 canola production estimate to 20.343 million tonnes, down 656,000 tonnes from September, and raised its all-wheat estimate to 31.769 million tonnes. Analysts said the canola revision was only mildly supportive and the Canadian dollar move mattered more.
A smaller Canadian canola crop tightens supply somewhat, but analysts expect limited price impact, while higher wheat output adds to wheat supply.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.