
India's government said it imported 4.2 million tonnes of urea worth over $1 billion through November of the 2018-19 fiscal year. Full 2017-18 urea imports were 5.98 million tonnes.
The government also reported DAP, NPK and potash imports for the same period.
Strong Indian urea and DAP import demand supports global nitrogen and phosphate prices. The effect is modest because the volumes are already known and the story is backward-looking.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 193 past bullish trade events, DAP moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.8%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.