USDA Raises Corn Inventories Outlook Beyond Expectations

After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.

• Sep 30, 2025USDA Grain Stocks 'Surprise' With Larger Corn Inventories Than Expected+0.8%
• Jan 12, 2026USDA Raises Production and Stocks Above Trade Expectations-2.8%
• Apr 9, 2020USDA raises corn, soy, wheat supply outlook - Country Guide-5.5%
• Apr 4, 2017USDA: high corn inventories, reduced maize crop-0.2%
• Nov 9, 2017USDA boosts corn harvest view above expectations on record yields - Grainews-1.8%

After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Sep 30, 2025USDA Grain Stocks 'Surprise' With Larger Corn Inventories Than Expected+0.4%
• Feb 10, 2026USDA Defies Expectations by Lowering Corn Ending Stocks+1.9%
• Jan 12, 2026USDA Raises Production and Stocks Above Trade Expectations+0.2%
• Apr 9, 2020USDA raises corn, soy, wheat supply outlook - Country Guide-0.6%
• Feb 11, 2025USDA Defies Expectations, Holds Corn and Soybean Ending Stocks Steady+2.0%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.