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Farm Futures analyst Bryce Knorr reports that farmer yield reports on Feedback From The Field suggest 2018 corn and soybean crops are smaller than USDA's November estimates. The average Feedback corn yield was 173.3 bpa, down 5.6 bpa from USDA's figure, and USDA will not revise until January.
If the USDA eventually lowers production estimates toward grower-reported yields, tighter corn and soybean supplies would support feed grain and meal prices.
farmprogress.comBryce Knorr 1Dec 3, 2018After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Farmer-reported yields of 173.3 bpa, well below USDA's November estimate, suggest a smaller crop and supply-side support for corn.
