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USDA's November WASDE unexpectedly cut the US soybean yield to 51.2 bpa, bringing the crop to 4.425 billion bushels. Soybean prices jumped about 2.5% after the report, and tight soymeal stocks were cited as a factor.
The yield surprise tightens soybean and soymeal supplies for feed users, which supports higher prices despite weaker Chinese import expectations.
farmprogress.comBen PotterNov 9, 2021After 747 past bullish report events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, SBM moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The Nov 9 WASDE surprise cut to US soybean yield (51.2 bpa) lifted soybeans about 2.5% and cited tight soymeal stocks, a direct supply-driven cause of the meal rally on that day.
