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The Bank of Canada kept its overnight rate at 1.75%, citing forecast global growth slowing to 3.4% in 2019 and the US-China trade conflict weighing on demand and commodity prices. Global oil benchmarks were about 25% below the October assumption, and Alberta production cuts were narrowing price differentials.
Weaker oil prices and global demand concerns reduce Canadian terms of trade and energy investment, while the on-hold central bank signals limited support for the currency.
bankofcanada.caMedia RelationsJan 9, 2019After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
