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Low Mississippi River levels and aging lock backlogs slowed barge traffic and pushed Midwest-to-Gulf hauling costs near record highs. Newly harvested corn and soybeans are piling up in storage, and cash soybean premiums at large river terminals fell to their lowest since at least 2011.
Freight bottlenecks trap supply inland, which depresses local cash bids and premiums even as export costs rise. Buyers may see cheaper inland soybeans and corn, while logistics costs keep export netbacks under pressure.
farmequip.orgOct 10, 2017Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Dated the same day as the move, it describes record-high river freight tied to low water and lock backlogs; this shows an elevated rate level that was likely to mean-revert, but it does not explain a 51% one-day drop.
