
The National Biodiesel Board is asking Congress for a multi-year extension of the $1 per gallon biodiesel tax credit, which has been on and off since 2005. Biodiesel output has grown from 100 million gallons in 2005 to nearly 3 billion gallons today.
Uncertainty over the tax credit affects investment in biodiesel capacity and therefore soybean oil demand. A lasting extension would support soyoil prices, but no legislation has passed yet.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.