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U.S. milk production fell below year-earlier levels for 13 straight months until August 2024, and dairy cow numbers declined for 16 months until October. USDA cut its 2025 All-Milk price forecast by 90 cents per cwt. from October to December while raising its 2025 milk production forecast.
CME futures pointed to a slightly higher 2025 average price than in 2024.
Returning herd and production expansion, combined with lower USDA price forecasts, points to a weaker milk price outlook if supply outpaces demand.
hoards.comPeter Vitaliano, NMPFJan 3, 2025After 273 past bearish report events, MILK moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
