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A commentary examines Mexico's new agricultural policy under President López Obrador, focusing on funding for mainline subsidy programs in his first year. It also introduces SEGALMEX, a government agency created by a January 18, 2019 decree to buy staples at guaranteed prices.
The author argues the policy resembles the guaranteed-price scheme used from 1965 to 1998.
A push for self-sufficiency in corn, wheat, beans, rice and milk could cut Mexico's import demand for feed grains over time, which is bearish for U.S. yellow corn and wheat exports. The effect is a longer-term policy risk rather than an immediate price move.
regulatingforglobalization.comJorge Miranda ( Cassidy Levy Kent LLP )Feb 25, 2019After 310 past bearish policy events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 122 past bearish policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
