Sept. 1 US hog inventory was 74.3 million head, down 1.5% year over year, and the breeding herd fell 1%.
The national composite whole bird averaged $1.17/lb for the week ending Oct. 9, down 1 cent week over week, and slaughter runs about 1.8% above 2025.
Lower hog numbers without higher product values signal weak demand, while flat chicken prices and above-year slaughter point to ample poultry supply.
After 61 past neutral report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.8%), and +2.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.