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The European Central Bank's account of its March monetary policy meeting noted that euro area inflation-linked swap rates kept falling while US rates rose after oil prices climbed over 25% since December. Policymakers judged that markets' policy expectations need careful reading because of risk premia.
Survey-based expectations for the first ECB rate hike had moved further out.
Diverging euro and US rate expectations shape the currency outlook, which in turn affects dollar-priced feed and grain values.
ecb.europa.euEuropean Central BankApr 4, 2019After 1,108 past macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.6%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
