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The IMF's 2019 Regional Economic Outlook projects a 1.7% contraction in output for non-GCC oil exporters, driven mainly by a deepening recession in Iran. Iran's economy is expected to shrink about 6% this year, with inflation possibly reaching 40% or more.
The report links the damage to U.S. sanctions that were re-imposed after the 2015 nuclear deal was abandoned.
Sanctions-driven recession in Iran and weaker growth among regional oil exporters reduce regional demand and currency stability, but the direct effect on crude supply is limited. The report adds to the sanctions backdrop that supports oil prices.
cnbc.comNatasha TurakApr 29, 2019After 362 past report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -3.7% to +2.6%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
