
Urea prices rose sharply in the past week after a new Indian tender and reaffirmation that US sanctions on Iran will not ease. Middle East spot values advanced by more than $10/t as traders booked May and June cargoes, and US granular barge prices surged on prompt demand.
River logistics delays are also lifting terminal prices.
Indian buying into a supply gap, with Chinese urea unavailable for export, supports firm Asian and US urea prices. Buyers should expect continued upward pressure on fertilizer costs for the coming planting season.
After 176 past bullish trade events, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.4%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.