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A WTO dispute panel found China administers its tariff-rate quotas for wheat, corn and rice inconsistently with its commitments, inhibiting the quotas from filling. USDA estimates full use would have meant up to $3.5 billion in grain imports in 2015 alone.
A ruling favoring the US could open Chinese grain import access over time, supporting US corn, wheat and rice export demand. The impact on near-term prices is limited while the trade dispute remains unresolved.
usda.govApr 18, 2019After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 189 past bullish trade events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.4%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
