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Capital Economics brought forward its forecast for the first Fed rate hike after the FOMC signaled a more optimistic outlook and a shift up in its dot plot projections. The firm now expects a stronger dollar across the board this year.
A forecast of sustained dollar strength tends to weigh on dollar-denominated commodity prices and supports importers' purchasing power in other currencies.
capitaleconomics.comJonas GoltermannJun 18, 2021After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 301 past bearish macro events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
