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USDA data show that in Q1 2019 the cost of shipping corn, soybeans and wheat from the U.S. to Mexico fell about 4 percent by water and 1 percent by land compared with the prior quarter. Lower truck and ocean freight rates drove the decline, with lower diesel prices also contributing.
Ocean rates fell on slower trade during the Chinese New Year and weaker coal and iron ore flows.
Lower freight costs improve the delivered competitiveness of U.S. grain in Mexico, supporting export basis. The effect on futures prices is small.
grainjournal.comMay 30, 2019Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 18 past bearish logistics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.5% to +3.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
