
The May 2019 WASDE projects the 2019/20 U.S. wheat season-average farm price at $4.70 per bushel. Oklahoma and Texas prices are projected near $4.48 and $4.53 based on historical discounts.
Forward contracts for Southern Plains harvest delivery were around $4.15.
The projection signals that producers should expect sub-$5 wheat, keeping pressure on wheat prices and on farm margins for the coming crop.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 138 past bearish report events, KWHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -2.9% to +2.4%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.