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The Panama Canal drought has led to vessel size limits effective May 28, and the canal authority issued an advisory on May 3. Analysis of USDA data indicates almost 8% of grain vessels leaving U.S. Gulf export elevators could be affected.
Restricted vessel sizes on Gulf-to-Asia routes can lower U.S. export competitiveness and widen Gulf basis, pressuring corn and soybean prices while lifting freight costs.
panamaadvisoryinternationalgroup.comAdrian ProzzoMay 6, 2019After 359 past bearish logistics events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.5%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 297 past bearish logistics events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
