
Dutch month-ahead gas fell to 8.95 euros/MWh, the lowest since August 2009, and has dropped about two-thirds from its September peak. Cheniere's fixed-formula U.S. LNG costs about $5.61/mmBtu including liquefaction fees, versus $3.19 for Dutch gas.
Europe still takes a large share of US LNG supply.
Oversupplied European gas and uneconomic long-term US LNG contracts point to weaker gas prices and possible cargo redirection. The effect on feed commodities is indirect.
After 59 past bearish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -5.0% to +5.2%), and -2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.