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Brazil reported an atypical case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in a 17-year-old cow in Mato Grosso, and China temporarily suspended Brazilian beef imports. Meat cargoes shipped after May 30 must be returned or redirected, and China accounts for about 20% of Brazilian beef exports.
A loss of China as an outlet for Brazilian beef could weigh on Brazilian cattle prices and push more beef into other markets, while the disease case itself adds risk premium to global beef trade. Impact on feed demand is limited.
internationalleathermaker.comBrazilJun 3, 2019After 70 past bearish disease events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.0%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 156 past neutral events of any kind, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.4%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
