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An op-ed argues that speculation about a large renminbi devaluation looks unlikely given China's large trade and balance-of-payments surpluses. It notes that the yen has slumped despite Japan's larger surplus, and that a policy-driven or accidental depreciation would have far-reaching consequences.
The author recommends domestic consumer support instead.
A sharp yuan depreciation would raise the local-currency cost of imported feed and could weaken Chinese feed demand, but the author views a large move as unlikely.
ft.comGeorge MagnusMay 6, 2024After 398 past bullish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
