
Thai rice exporters expect China to expand rice shipments this year, especially to Africa, with Chinese exports forecast to reach about 3 million tonnes. Thai 2019 exports are projected to fall about 5% from 2018 to around 11 million tonnes, with Thai export prices quoted at $390-407/t.
Thai exporters are concerned about losing market share.
Expanding Chinese exports and lower Thai volumes add competitive pressure to global rice trade, which weighs on export prices. The effect on feed markets is limited.
After 141 past bearish trade events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -2.3% to +2.4%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.