
Vietnam's 5% broken rice fell to $565-$570 per tonne, its lowest since July 2023, and Thai 5% broken slipped to $570-$575, the lowest since early April. Buyers are holding off in anticipation of India easing its rice export restrictions, and Vietnam's June shipments fell 40% from May.
Weak demand while buyers wait for India's possible export easing points to softer Asian rice export prices, with Indian supply returning being a key bearish factor.
After 141 past bearish trade events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -2.3% to +2.4%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.