US natural gas futures posted a small gain as bearish weather forecasts offset slightly hotter outlooks for mid-August. September Nymex futures settled at $2.137 while the NGI spot average fell to $1.955/MMBtu.
The forecaster said bears remain in control unless prices break below $2.20.
Weak gas prices reduce feedstock costs for nitrogen fertilizer and ethanol margins, while the bearish weather outlook offers little support for power-demand-driven price rallies.
After 104 past bearish weather events, Natural Gas moved a median -7.8% over 5 sessions (22% higher; middle half -14.8% to -0.8%), and -3.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.