
India's non-basmati rice exports halved in April-May 2019 after the government withdrew a 5% export incentive from April 1. Shipments fell to 711,837 tonnes from 1.53 million tonnes a year earlier, and export value dropped more than 50% to $294 million.
India is a major rice exporter, so a sharp drop in its non-basmati shipments removes supply from world markets and may firm global rice prices, while MSP increases make Indian rice less competitive.
After 168 past bullish policy events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.8% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.1%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.