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June acreage survey and quarterly stocks — historically one of the most volatile report days.
USDA NASSAfter 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 2,447 past report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,283 past report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports were released on 2025-06-30 and typically reset expectations for planted area and old-crop supplies, so a surprise versus trade estimates plausibly drove a 2.95% (z 3.9) corn move via the supply outlook; the candidate list gives no actual figures, so the direction and size of the surprise are unconfirmed.
The June 30 USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks report is a high-volatility event, and lower soybean acres set up the next-day rebound, though ADM notes mixed reaction.
