Loading…
June acreage survey and quarterly stocks — historically one of the most volatile report days.
USDA NASSAfter 3,207 past report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 2,389 past report events, Soybeans moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 2,447 past report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 1,283 past report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The June 30 USDA Acreage report showed soybean plantings far below trade expectations (about 83.5M acres vs ~87.7M expected), tightening the expected supply and triggering a sharp same-day rally.
The June 30 USDA Acreage report showed soybean plantings far below trade expectations (about 83.5M acres vs ~87.7M expected), tightening the expected supply and triggering a sharp same-day rally.
The June 30, 2023 USDA Acreage report showed corn plantings of about 94.1 million acres, well above March intentions and trade expectations, which signaled larger supply and drove a sharp limit-type selloff within the 5-day window.
The June 30 USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks reports fall inside the 5-day window and are a known volatility catalyst; they likely added bearish supply sentiment that spilled over from corn and soybeans into wheat alongside the ongoing winter wheat harvest pressure, though the reports alone probably do not account for the full 13% decline.
The June 30 Acreage and Grain Stocks report day is historically very volatile and likely produced the large move at the end of the window.
The USDA Acreage and Grain Stocks report on 2023-06-30 is a major volatility event that could reset supply expectations and spark follow-through selling on the next trading session (July 3), but the summary gives no details on the actual surprise, and a -5.58% move is large enough that other factors (e.g., Black Sea/export developments) may also be contributing, so the link is plausible but unconfirmed.
