
The yen held near a 2.5-year high as the US two-year and ten-year Treasury yield curve inverted further, a signal of recession risk. Investors cited the US-China trade conflict and Japan's ruling coalition losing its parliamentary majority.
Growing recession fears and a stronger safe-haven yen can weigh on dollar-denominated commodities and risk assets, adding downside pressure to feed prices if global demand slows.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.