Saudi Arabia plans to keep crude exports below 7 million bpd in August and September despite strong customer nominations. Its production will stay below 10 million bpd, and the kingdom says OPEC+ will keep the balance next year.
OPEC+ extended output cuts to March 2020 in July.
Capping Saudi exports below strong demand tightens crude supply and supports prices, which keeps diesel and energy costs firmer for feed and freight. The commitment to restrain supply through 2020 limits downside.
After 438 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -2.2% to +4.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 442 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.9%), and +2.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.