
Russia and Ukraine sold 10.8 million bushels of 12.5% protein wheat to Egypt on August 15 at an average FOB price of $202.18 per tonne. The analysis converts that price into a competitive Oklahoma and Texas wheat price of about $3.49 per bushel.
Black Sea supply may already have saturated the market for hard red wheat.
Low-priced Black Sea wheat caps US hard red winter export competitiveness and pressures Kansas City wheat basis and cash prices in the Plains.
After 82 past bearish trade events, KWHEAT moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.8% to +1.9%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.