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A Bloomberg analysis ranks how emerging-market currencies would respond to a U.S.-China trade deal. The Brazilian real is expected to be the strongest performer in that scenario, while the Thai baht and Israeli shekel would be the least responsive.
A trade deal would likely lift risk appetite and weaken the dollar, with the real gaining most. A stronger real would make Brazilian soybeans and soymeal dearer in dollar terms, so the scenario carries some export-competitiveness implications for Brazil.
bloomberg.comSimon FlintSep 29, 2019After 621 past macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.4%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
