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SnowBrains republishes the Climate.gov October 2019 ENSO update, which gives about an 85% chance that the tropical Pacific stays ENSO-neutral through fall and 55-60% through spring. It explains that a recent rise in Niño3.4 temperatures does not yet qualify as El Niño.
Neutral conditions point to no strong ENSO-driven supply shock for corn, soy or other feed inputs, so the price effect is minimal.
snowbrains.comSnowBrainsOct 11, 2019After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
