
Harvest in the Eastern Corn Belt and western Corn Belt is diverging, with farmers running combines overnight on frozen ground while cold, dry weather helps harvest progress. In the northern Plains, snow, mud and rain made the spring wheat harvest hazardous, and about 25% of the crop has been downgraded to feed wheat.
Downgrades of spring wheat to feed grade add supply to the feed market and weigh on feed-quality wheat values, while harvest progress reduces weather risk for corn.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.