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Thailand's Rice Exporters Association says a baht up more than 9% against the dollar over the past year is making Thai rice uncompetitive. Thai white rice is quoted at $425 a tonne, versus about $380 at last year's exchange rate.
Thai export uncompetitiveness shifts trade share toward India and Vietnam, which pressures Asian rice export prices lower.
After 16 past bearish macro events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -5.1% to +1.7%), and +4.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.