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Botswana opened its borders to live cattle exports from September 2019 until 31 March 2020, with about 30% of its national herd earmarked for export. South African industry groups warned the move creates uncertainty and could pressure local cattle and beef prices.
A large inflow of Botswana cattle into South Africa could add supply to an already stressed market and push local cattle and beef prices lower.
After 121 past bearish trade events, Live Cattle moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.6% to +0.8%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.