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CRU analysis says China holds 34% of global urea capacity and 10% of global trade in 2019. Chinese marginal exports set the global floor price when the market is oversupplied.
Environmental curbs on anthracite coal-based Chinese nitrogen plants are shifting marginal supply to bituminous coal producers, which shapes the global urea price floor and the cost of nitrogen for feed grain production.
After 26 past neutral policy events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (27% higher; middle half -4.1% to +0.6%), and -2.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.