Viewpoint: Weak Chinese demand to weigh on Supramaxes

After 50 past bearish disease events, Soybeans moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.4%), and +0.0% over 20.

• Feb 20, 2020Soybeans drop on China demand worries, wheat near 4-week peak | Financial Post-1.8%
• Mar 12, 2019Swine fever hurts China soybean demand, raises doubts on trade promises+3.2%
• Sep 27, 2019Fatter pigs, new farms to boost China soymeal demand+2.6%
• Feb 28, 2020China's soy complex demand likely to fall in H1 2020 on coronavirus outbreak: Rabobank | S&P Global+0.3%
• Apr 15, 2021More wheat feeding and pig disease outbreaks pose double threat to China soymeal demand | Reuters+6.2%

After 167 past bearish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.4%), and -0.8% over 20.

• Feb 20, 2020Soybeans drop on China demand worries, wheat near 4-week peak | Financial Post-0.6%
• Mar 12, 2019Swine fever hurts China soybean demand, raises doubts on trade promises+4.4%
• Feb 28, 2020China's soy complex demand likely to fall in H1 2020 on coronavirus outbreak: Rabobank | S&P Global+1.2%
• Apr 15, 2021More wheat feeding and pig disease outbreaks pose double threat to China soymeal demand | Reuters+3.2%
• Feb 28, 2019China warns of “serious” impact of swine fever, cuts meal demand 5%-1.0%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.