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China's hog inventory was down 41.4% in October from a year earlier, while sow inventory rose 0.6% from September. Rabobank estimates ASF has caused a 55% loss in China's hog herd and retail pork prices rose 78% from September to October.
A deep herd shortfall keeps pork prices elevated and limits near-term feed demand, with herd rebuilding not expected to restore production until around 2021.
feedstuffs.comKrissa WelshansDec 2, 2019After 177 past bullish disease events, HOGS moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 98 past neutral disease events, SBM moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.5%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
