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The University of Arkansas extension economist says the U.S.-China Phase One trade deal was signed on Jan. 15, 2020, and markets reacted disappointingly.
Grain, pork and cotton prices traded higher after the earlier December announcement, then fell after the signing, in a 'buy the rumor, sell the fact' pattern. The article also notes that the third MFP payment is still pending with no date.
The signed deal was expected to boost U.S. export demand, but the price response faded after the signing. Grain prices may stay under pressure until purchases show up in export sales.
uaex.uada.eduJan 24, 2020After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
