
MarketsFarm reports that forecaster Drew Lerner expects favorable 2020 growing conditions in South America, with Brazil producing a record 124 million tonnes of soybeans and Argentina on track for 23 million tonnes. Australia faces a third year of record dryness in some areas.
A record Brazilian soybean crop forecast points to ample supply that would pressure soybean and meal prices, and it reduces the chance that canola or corn buyers gain from South American shortfalls.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 118 past bearish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -3.2% to +0.4%), and -1.6% over 20.
After 357 past bearish weather events, Corn moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.