OPEC sees growing supply threat from rivals beyond U.S. shale

After 129 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Feb 12, 2019OPEC Sees Weaker Demand for Its Crude as US Oil Supply Thrives - TT+8.0%
• Sep 23, 2018OPEC raises U.S. oil supply outlook, sees lower demand for own crude+4.9%
• Jan 16, 2020IEA sees well-supplied oil market despite slower shale growth | S&P Global-1.5%
• Feb 12, 2018OPEC hikes 2018 forecast for oil supply growth on a flood of US crude+2.6%
• Nov 22, 2018Oil falls on rising U.S. inventories, OPEC talk of cut limits loss-6.7%

After 171 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.

• Feb 12, 2019OPEC Sees Weaker Demand for Its Crude as US Oil Supply Thrives - TT+6.0%
• Sep 23, 2018OPEC raises U.S. oil supply outlook, sees lower demand for own crude+3.4%
• Jan 16, 2020IEA sees well-supplied oil market despite slower shale growth | S&P Global-4.0%
• Feb 12, 2018OPEC hikes 2018 forecast for oil supply growth on a flood of US crude+4.4%
• Nov 22, 2018Oil falls on rising U.S. inventories, OPEC talk of cut limits loss-5.6%