The EPA granted 31 of 38 retroactive small refinery exemptions for 2018 under the Renewable Fuel Standard. Exempted volumes are not reallocated, so renewable volume obligations fall and RINs returned to refiners are sold cheaply, undercutting renewable fuel blending.
Reduced RFS blending obligations weaken demand for rendered fats and soybean oil used in biodiesel, which is bearish for vegetable oil and feedstock prices.
After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.