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Fertilizer Daily analysts expect the 2019-nCoV outbreak in China to disrupt logistics and reduce exports of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers. They also expect lower potash orders from Chinese farmers as potash imports become harder to move.
Lower Chinese nitrogen and phosphate exports would support urea and DAP prices, while weaker potash demand would pressure potash prices.
fertilizerdaily.comElena ShalashnikFeb 3, 2020After 758 past bullish events of any kind, Urea moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
After 11 past bullish disease events, DAP moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half 0.0% to +3.3%), and +2.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Analysts expect coronavirus logistics disruption to cut Chinese phosphorus fertilizer exports, tightening global DAP supply and lifting prices.
