
Midwest banks are concerned that ethanol profits have been squeezed by low prices, weather-hit corn costs and EPA waivers of renewable fuel requirements for refiners. Ethanol prices are more than 16% lower than last summer, and profits have settled below 5 cents per gallon.
Federal waivers that reduce ethanol blending requirements weaken ethanol demand and can cut plant corn grind. Plant closures or idling would reduce DDGS output and corn demand.
After 310 past bearish policy events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.