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Futures traders now price a 70% chance of a Fed rate cut at the March 18 meeting, up from 9% a week earlier. Markets also expect at least two quarter-point cuts over 12 months, and 10-year Treasury yields fell to a record low of 1.25%.
Expected Fed easing weakens the dollar, which typically supports dollar-priced commodities and may lift feed grain export competitiveness.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, DXY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.